Climate Change and Health: Understanding the Impact on Severe Malaria

The connection between climate and health is becoming impossible to ignore. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events are no longer abstract environmental challenges — they are directly shaping the spread and severity of diseases.

Climate as a Driver of Malaria Risk

Malaria transmission is highly sensitive to climate conditions:

• Temperature influences the life cycle of mosquitoes and the parasite they carry. Warmer conditions can accelerate transmission, but extreme heat may also limit mosquito survival.

• Rainfall creates breeding sites for mosquitoes, with flooding events sometimes triggering spikes in cases.

• Humidity affects mosquito survival and, in turn, the probability of transmission.

These dynamics make malaria a disease that is deeply intertwined with environmental change. For communities already facing health system constraints, the added unpredictability of climate-driven outbreaks can have devastating effects.

Why Severe Malaria Matters

While many malaria cases can be treated, severe malaria remains a life-threatening condition, particularly for young children and pregnant women. It is responsible for the majority of malaria-related deaths worldwide.

Understanding how climate variability influences not just malaria incidence, but specifically the risk of severe malaria, is critical. This knowledge allows health systems to prepare more effectively — ensuring that diagnostic tools, treatments, and health workers are in the right place at the right time.

EPCON’s First Steps in Climate & Health

EPCON applies Bayesian inference models and other machine learning methods to map and predict malaria risk across different geographies and age groups.

By combining:

• Climate indicators (temperature, rainfall, soil moisture)

• Population density, demographics, and settlement distribution

• Nutritional and vaccination coverage

• Access to healthcare facilities and travel networks

• Malaria prevalence, ITN presence, resistance to chemical agents

• Forest cover, vegetation types

• Distribution of specific parasites and vectors

• Conflict, displacement, and social vulnerability

… we aim to develop models that help Ministries of Health anticipate spikes in severe malaria risk and plan interventions accordingly.

From Prediction to Action

Our vision is not just to produce climate-linked malaria forecasts, but to embed them into decision-support systems.

This way, climate insights can directly inform:

• Where to strengthen hospital readiness for severe malaria cases.

• When to intensify community awareness and prevention campaigns.

• How to allocate limited diagnostic and treatment resources before a surge occurs.

Looking Ahead

Climate change will continue to redefine the health risks faced by vulnerable populations.

By focusing on the intersection of climate, data, and health, EPCON is committed to ensuring that Ministries of Health are not caught off guard, but empowered with predictive insights to save lives.

As we take our first steps in this area with severe malaria, we believe the same approach can extend to more climate-sensitive diseases in the future. Because building resilient health systems means preparing not just for yesterday’s challenges, but for tomorrow’s climate-driven realities.