Belgium
Searching for correlations between Socio-Economic Vulnerability and ASCVD Risk
High similarity in geographic distribution of the areas with the highest ASCVD risk (in blue) and the most vulnerable areas (in orange), many of these areas fall in Wallonia and along the coast.
Project Context
Cardiovascular disease (CVD), and particularly atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), remains a leading cause of mortality in Belgium. While clinical risk factors are well documented, the impact of socio-economic vulnerability and healthcare access on ASCVD risk is less understood. In collaboration with Novartis, KU Leuven, MLOZ, and Cascador, EPCON implemented a research project to explore these dimensions and support data-driven prevention strategies. The aim was to equip policymakers with tools and evidence to improve health equity and prioritize outreach efforts.
Project Objectives
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Quantify how socio-economic and contextual vulnerability correlates with ASCVD risk
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Identify geographic clusters where ASCVD burden, care gaps, and vulnerability coincide
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Search for disparities in healthcare use patterns, especially regarding primary health care services and early detection
EPCON's Approach
EPCON applied advanced modeling techniques to link anonymized claims and socio-demographic data, using a Bayesian spatial framework to estimate relative ASCVD risk across municipalities. Key innovations included:
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Development of a healthcare use index and vulnerability index at neighbourhood level
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Integration of health service utilization patterns, ASCVD ratios, and population-level indicators
Key Outcomes and Impact
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Vulnerable municipalities were shown to have lower engagement with primary care, potentially missing early detection of ASCVD
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Vulnerability was the strongest predictors of elevated ASCVD risk.
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Population-level dashboards enable policymakers to identify hotspots for intervention
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Enabled data-driven dialogue on how to allocate resources more equitably and efficiently
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Results will be included in a national policy report, with recommendations currently under review by key Belgian stakeholders
Key Outcomes and Impact
-
Vulnerable municipalities were shown to have lower engagement with primary care, potentially missing early detection of ASCVD
-
Vulnerability was the strongest predictors of elevated ASCVD risk.
-
Population-level dashboards enable policymakers to identify hotspots for intervention
-
Enabled data-driven dialogue on how to allocate resources more equitably and efficiently
-
Results will be included in a national policy report, with recommendations currently under review by key Belgian stakeholders
