Belgium
Searching for correlations between Socio-Economic Vulnerability and ASCVD Risk
High similarity in geographic distribution of the areas with the highest ASCVD risk (in blue) and the most vulnerable areas (in orange), many of these areas fall in Wallonia and along the coast.
Project Context
Cardiovascular disease (CVD), and particularly atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), remains a leading cause of mortality in Belgium. While clinical risk factors are well documented, the impact of socio-economic vulnerability and healthcare access on ASCVD risk is less understood. In collaboration with Novartis, KU Leuven, MLOZ, and Cascador, EPCON implemented a research project to explore these dimensions and support data-driven prevention strategies. The aim was to equip policymakers with tools and evidence to improve health equity and prioritize outreach efforts.
Project Objectives
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Quantify how socio-economic and contextual vulnerability correlates with ASCVD risk
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Identify geographic clusters where ASCVD burden, care gaps, and vulnerability coincide
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Search for disparities in healthcare use patterns, especially regarding primary health care services and early detection
EPCON's Approach
EPCON applied advanced modeling techniques to link anonymized claims and socio-demographic data, using a Bayesian spatial framework to estimate relative ASCVD risk across municipalities. Key innovations included:
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Development of a healthcare use index and vulnerability index at neighbourhood level
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Integration of health service utilization patterns, ASCVD ratios, and population-level indicators
The underlying methodology and findings have been published, open access, in BMC Public Health. You can read the full paper here https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-026-27365-6
Key Outcomes and Impact
By overlaying ASCVD prevalence with a refined socioeconomic vulnerability index (built on the Belgian Index of Multiple Deprivation, covering income, employment, education, housing, health and crime) and a healthcare use index (GP, dentist, cardiologist, gynecologist visits), three clear patterns emerge.
1. ASCVD prevalence is 57% higher in the most vulnerable municipalities than in the least vulnerable ones. The peer-reviewed analysis confirms this with a median prevalence 1.57 times higher (95% CI: 1.46–1.65) in high-vulnerability areas.
2. People in the most vulnerable areas use 32% less primary care and around 40% more secondary (specialist) care than people in the least vulnerable municipalities. They are entering the system later, and through more expensive doors.
3. The geography is striking. High-vulnerability and high-ASCVD-burden areas overlap visibly along the Belgian coast and across the Mons–Charleroi–Liège–Dinant axis in Wallonia
Try it yourself
The ASCVD Heatmap is publicly accessible through EPCON's Epi-control platform:
🔗 https://ascvd-heatmap.epcon.ai
